† Corresponding author. E-mail:
Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11705042 and 71874172), the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant Nos. 2018T110040 and 2016M590041), the Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities, China (Grant No. JZ2018HGTB0238), Curriculum Planning and Design Research Project, China (Grant No. 102-033119), and the Teaching Quality and Teaching Reform Project, China (Grant No. JYQZ1815).
In the field of statistical mechanics and system science, it is acknowledged that the financial crisis has a profound influence on stock market. However, the influence of total asset of enterprise on stock quote was not considered in the previous studies. In this work, a modified cross-correlation matrix that focuses on the influence of total asset on stock quote is introduced into the analysis of the stocks collected from Asian and American stock markets, which is different from the previous studies. The key results are obtained as follows. Firstly, stock is more greatly correlated with big asset than with small asset. Secondly, the higher the correlation coefficient among stocks, the larger the eigenvector is. Thirdly, in different periods, like the pre-subprime crisis period and the peak of subprime crisis period, Asian stock quotes show that the component of the third eigenvector of the cross-correlation matrix decreases with the asset of the enterprise decreasing. Fourthly, by simulating the threshold network, the small network constructed by 10 stocks with large assets can show the large network state constructed by 30 stocks. In this research we intend to fully explain the physical mechanism for understanding the historical correlation between stocks and provide risk control strategies in the future.
For statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics, the complex network is widely studied due to its significance in understanding profound physical mechanism of dynamical systems.[1–4] In general, the complex network can be divided into small world networks,[5] self-similarity ones,[6] regular ones,[7] partly or wholly heterogeneous one.[8] It is capable of modelling real physical or engineering phenomena like traffic flow,[9–15] the transcription of mRNA,[16] the directional motion of active particles,[17–25] etc., which leads the technology networks,[26] social networks,[27] financial network,[28–39] biological networks, etc. to emerge.[40] Among these researches, the predictions and analyses of stocks in the market are widely studied and analyzed in the financial measure like the management and control of risks.[41] Therefore, the research on the financial network is essential, especially for the stock market.[42] It is widely known that the entire market economy is dependent on variation in financial network,[43] and the stock market is a barometer of social, economic, and financial conditions.[44] Moreover, the correlation among stocks is a key feature of venture capital. Furthermore, due to the interrelationship among stocks, it is quite necessary to use the complex network to study the correlation among real stocks in financial market.[28–39]
Owing to the academic significance and practical values of the complex network, some typical methods have been introduced into the studies like Euler diagram,[45] E-R random diagram,[46] etc. Among these analytical methods, the minimum spanning tree (MST) method is considered as an effective way to identify the risk channel of financial market.[47] However, with this method the importance of network nodes cannot be analyzed. In order to address the weaknesses of MST, the planar maximum filtering (PMFG) method has been adopted in recent years.[48] Specifically, for the (PMFG) method, each stock of the network is seen as a node. Besides, the correlation among stocks is seen as links among the network nodes. Moreover, the planar maximum filter map reflects the construction of the network whose edges are not completely interlinked, and at least two edges of each node are connected to the network nodes, as the network structure has been formed. Besides, another method named the threshold network[49] is quite useful in the theoretical analysis of the financial network. It should be noted that the method of applying the threshold network to the analysis modifies the magnitude of the correlation between node threshold and set threshold for these indicators.[50] In fact, it is advantageous because useful information can also be filtered. These network nodes are arranged according to their values. Besides, by setting the threshold, highly-correlated nodes can be retained because of their high correlation.
Based on the methods above, some studies in this field have been conducted previously. The research conducted by Allen pioneered the financial network.[51] Hereafter, Jiang used resources of Shanghai stock exchange (SSE) to make maximum plane filter maps, the node position and the connection edge of the network graph change with time.[52] In the subprime crisis or during the internet bubble, the network presented a chain-like linear structure. Therefore, a cross-correlation matrix for the high-frequency data of SSE was made.[53] Since then, the planar maximum filtering method has been used to study the market state in the morning and afternoon.[54] A significant difference in the market was reported. However, although tremendous studies about financial networks have been reported previously,[28–54] there are rare studies about investigating the correlation among stocks. At least, the correlation among stocks has not been extensively investigated. Firstly, it should be clarified that the cross correlation matrix Cij of stock prices is isochronal correlation of stock yield between stock i and stock j. Then, as for the focus of our concerned issue (namely, studying the correlation among stocks by using the cross-correlation matrix), some pioneering studies are reviewed as follows. Shen firstly used the data of SSE, NSE (National stock exchange of India) and NYSE (New York stock exchange) to make a cross-correlation matrix whose maximum eigenvalue represents stock interactions.[55] However, this exploration is only from a macro perspective and does not consider the microscopic one. Then, high-frequency data of NYSE was used to obtain the main components of stock market changes in different industries from a microscopic perspective.[56] While there is no further consideration of time dynamics in their work. Hereafter, a cross-correlation matrix rolling window was introduced.[57] The historical time points of the instability of the Tokyo Stock Exchange was examined. However, this mentioned work did not consider the common characteristics of the market state when the financial crisis emerges. Recently, Qiu took the 30 constituent stocks in the US Dow Jones Index and used the number of associated edges of the network nodes to judge the state of the stock market.[58] The more the number of network nodes seems, the greater the influence of enterprise on the market is. However, the fact that stock quote can be affected by the assets of enterprise is ignored.
To conclude, the correlation among stocks has been extensively studied, which is unlike previous studies. The contributions and improvements of the work can be expanded. Firstly, Asian market stocks and US market stocks are considered with the empirical data in the subprime crisis. Stocks with big assets are more closely linked than stocks with small assets. Secondly, the third characteristic vector quantity of the cross-correlation matrix decreases with assets of Asian enterprises decreasing at the early stage of the subprime crisis. Thirdly, to enhance the competitiveness of the enterprise, adopting different investment strategies and carrying out different competition plans are beneficial to the strategy of customer assets, followed by the enterprise-oriented development, the improvement of the asset structure and the reduction of asset risks, depending on the characteristics of different stages of the customer relationship life cycle. Fourthly, a financial market network is established by the threshold approach. Then, the financial threshold network is composed of different stocks. Besides, the stocks with big assets are divided into small networks in the study, indicating the changes of the whole network at the same time. Fifthly, the total assets of the stock have been taken into account for the analysis of changes in market volatility, proving more accurate information in the study than previous studies.
The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Theoretical derivations of the stock correlation are performed in Section
In this section, the theoretical method in this study is introduced in detail, including establishing physical models of the complex network, performing numerical simulations and proving the validity of the theoretical analysis. Firstly, the physical model of cross-correlation matrix is proposed in subSection
Then, based on the analytical expression of logarithmic price return Ri, the normalized price return is derived. Actually, the nature of normalized price return limits the quantity of data that need to be processed in a certain range by means of using designed algorithms. Here, the normalized price return
Hereafter, the cross-correlation matrix is derived based on the analytical expression of the normalized price returns, and can be expressed as
Furthermore, since Cij is a square matrix, the analytical solutions for its eigenvalues and eigenvectors can also be derived. Here, Cij is set as a 30-order matrix, since 30 stocks have been calculated in the study. Then, the variable λ is introduced as an eigenvalue of Cij. Thus, corresponding eigenvector a can also be introduced, which is related to eigenvalue λ. Therefore, the cross-correlation matrix Cij can be rewritten as
Additionally, in order to investigate the properties of proposed financial network, it is necessary to recall and define analytical solutions of typical parameters of network. At first, the node degree ki is introduced. Then, the average degree of network is set as
Based on the theoretical analysis in Eqs. (
Besides, in Table
Moreover, Table
It should be emphasized that the empirical data of 30 American stocks are obtained from the trading information during the period from January 3, 1994 to December 31, 2013. Besides, the data of thirty Asian stocks are obtained from the trading information during the period from January 1, 2004 to September 12, 2018. Moreover, in order to draw the conclusion of the work, the data truncation is carried out. Specifically, the data of Asian stocks and American stocks from June 1, 2005 to January 29, 2010 are used. However, the trading during the concerned period lasts 1081 days and 1175 days, separately. Although the same interval is taken into account, the total number of the trading days for further calculations is quite different from that for Asian stocks and American stocks. This is due to the fact that the suspension of stocks in Asia and America are quite different from each other. Generally speaking, industrial stocks in America have much longer time series than Asian stocks due to earlier launch into the market, stable production and almost no fluctuations in stocks. Besides, in order to ensure the universality of obtained results and obtain universal statistical laws, all data should meet the condition that each stock should be open or in usual trading. If stocks are in the closing state brought by anyone, stocks on that day should be abandoned. That is to say, the original data of these 30 stocks in Asia and 30 stocks in America have been intercepted. Besides, it should be noted that the basis for data truncation here has covered three stages of subprime crisis, namely, the period occurs separately before subprime crisis, during subprime crisis, and after occurring subprime crisis, which leads to the more objective reflecting the influence of subprime crisis on the stock correlation. The focused temporal series can be divided into four temporal segments, i.e., regular time in the interval from June 2005 to July 2006, the pre-subprime crisis in the interval from August 2006 to September 2007, the peak of subprime crisis in the interval from October 2007 to November 2008, and the latter stage of subprime crisis in the interval from December 2008 to January 2010. In fact, the calculation of the correlation matrix presented in the next section is based on these empirical data extracted from the 30 Asian stocks and 30 American stocks mentioned above. The closing price of these stocks is also emphasized, and the stock is obtained on condition that the trading date are suitable for all focused stocks. Besides, the closing price of these stocks is arranged in the order of the ranks of the total assets of each stock.[62] That is to say, the calculation of correlation matrix presented in the next section is actually based on 60 columns of information about the closing price of these 30 Asian stocks and 30 American ones. Then, these mentioned data are normalized. That is to say, the values of these normalized data range from 0 to 1. In fact, it should be emphasized that the performing normalization is due to the modulus of component of eigenvector ranging from 0 to 1.
Additionally, it is quite necessary to address the reason why 30 Asian stocks and 30 American stocks are focused on. In order to study the universal law of the interaction among different markets, the correlation among the stock prices in the emerging market and relatively developed market is chosen. The former corresponds to 30 individual stocks in Asia. While, the latter one is related to 30 individual stocks in America. The focused 30 stocks in Asia are extracted from the top 100 companies in China’s Fortune List, which are in the top thirty. These 30 companies have much stronger economic strength, enterprise scale and international competitive strength, which can reflect the economic market situation in Asia to a certain extent and can also be regarded as the indicator of the future trend of Asian market to some extent. While, the focused thirty American stocks are extracted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which are also representative stock samples. In fact, the selected samples can be more objective to reflect the overview of the entire American stock market and can also be treated as a measure of investment evaluation.
Moreover, for the convenience of establishing adjacency matrix, modelling complex network and analyzing established network, only 30 Asian stocks and 30 American stocks are selected in this research. It should be noted that the extraction of empirical data depends on the selected sampling points and the sample space. In the appropriate sample space, it is more helpful to select representative sample points for obtaining the universal statistical law. Thus, if more stocks are selected, the modelling of complex network, the analyses of established network and the construction of adjacency matrix can also be performed as long as the chosen stocks are representative.
Furthermore, it should also be emphasized that if other data are selected, the results will not change. When the subprime mortgage crisis occurs, the component of the feature vector related to the second largest eigenvalue of the cross-correlation matrix of Asian stocks does not change. While, after the crisis occurs, the component value of the small feature vector of the stock asset will greatly fluctuate. Afterwards, for the American financial market, the component value fluctuations of the eigenvectors will always become smaller no matter they occur during or after the crisis. That is to say, the correlation among American stocks is more fragile than that among Chinese stocks. Thus, the criterion of selecting samples in this work must meet the requirement that the characteristics of stocks with large assets and large correlations among stocks should be reflected out.
In the last section, we present the relationship between the closing price of stocks and the price return, normalize the price return, and deduce the analytical expressions of eigenvectors and the relation between cross-correlation matrixes. Additionally, based on the theoretical analyses and empirical data (namely, 30 Asian stocks and 30 American stocks) presented in the last section, the intensity of correlation coefficient, moduli of components of eigenvectors, the relationship between the total asset of stocks and the third-largest eigenvector, the evolution of the average correlation coefficient, the analysis of threshold networks and the analysis of PMFG graphs are displayed from Figs.
To be specific, the closing price of the concerned 30 Asian stocks in the time intervals ranging from June 2005 to January 2010 is employed to analyze the correlation coefficient matrix among stocks to quantitatively depict different states of the stock market. Furthermore, the mechanisms of the dynamic evolution of the correlations among stocks in various periods of financial system (namely, the regular periods, the pre-subprime crisis, the peak and the latter stage of subprime crisis) are found. Corresponding results are presented in Figs.
Besides, in order to explore the interactions among stocks in financial market, moduli of the components
Then, moduli of components of last four eigenvalues of cross-correlation matrix are also discussed in Figs.
Moreover, in order to compare the various interactions among stocks during different periods, both the period of the pre-subprime crisis and the peak of subprime crisis are emphasized in Fig.
In order to in depth study the correlation among stocks at different time points, the average value of the correlation coefficients among stocks is calculated in Fig.
The PMFG graphs and corresponding properties of these networks are also discussed in Fig.
In this research, the sorting operation of stock total assets is performed in the process of analyzing total assets. Specifically, by searching the website of Fortune China, the stock total asset of each focused stock can be found to be sorted in the descending order. Here, in this work, the unit of stock asset is set to be millions of dollars. Besides, in the process of constructing and calculating the correlation matrix Cij, the total asset weight is considered to some extent. Specifically, subscript i denotes the row number of correlation matrix Cij. Different row numbers correspond to different closing times. For a specific row in correlation matrix Cij, different columns correspond to different stocks, whose total assets are sorted in the descending order. In fact, each element in correlation matrix Cij reflects the correlation between the i-th stock and the j-th stock of the focused 30 Asian stocks and 30 American stocks. For instance, the element C56 denotes the correlation between the fifth stock and the sixth stock of the focused 30 Asian stocks and 30 American stocks. Furthermore, in the process of constructing and calculating the correlation matrix Cij, the asset size of enterprises can reflect the total asset weight to some extent. Besides considering the asset size of enterprises, more comprehensive total asset weights will be further studied in our later work, including the influences of asset quality, profitability, liquidity and capital ratio.
In the fields of complex networks, statistical physics and economic physics, the essence of market model[56] is the common reflection of the whole market to the external information. In fact, both Asian stock market and American stock market have the property of market model. The maximum eigenvalue of the correlation matrix can well reflect the basic characteristics of the market model, since the physical meaning of the maximum eigenvalue of the correlation matrix represents the common interaction among all stocks in the market. The properties of four leading eigenvalues of the correlation matrix are revealed in Fig.
In this paper, the influences of financial crisis on stock correlations are investigated. The influence of total assets on stock data is considered in our work, especially the correlation matrix is constructed, which is different from previous researches. Empirical data of 30 Asian stocks and 30 American stocks are employed in the analyses. Detailed theoretical analyses of the derivations of analytical expressions of cross-correlation matrix and characteristic order parameters of constructed networks are performed. Then, correlations among stocks are extensively analyzed. Also calculated are the correlation coefficients of the focused 30 stocks in Asia, the moduli of components of eigenvectors of first four and last four eigenvalues of matrix, the total asset of the focused 30 Asian stocks versus the third-largest eigenvector, the average cross-correlation versus time, threshold networks, PMFG graphs and corresponding network properties.
Some key results are summarized as follows. Firstly, the correlation among stocks is used as a correlation matrix to establish a threshold network. The 30 nodes and 10 nodes are considered, respectively. The former considers the focused 30 stocks, while the latter emphasizes 10 stocks with the top ten total assets. When the threshold exceeds 0.5, the number of nodes far away from the core of the network suddenly becomes sparse and truncated. Simulation results show that the optimization threshold can be set to be an arbitrary number ranging from 0.2 to 0.4, which entirely displays the global threshold financial network. Secondly, using the maximum filtering method of the plane to determine the consolidation of networks, the threshold networks based on these empirical data of stocks are also constructed. The core nodes are found in the period of the pre-subprime crisis and the peak of subprime crisis, while the numbers of their core nodes are quite different. Three core nodes and two ones are observed in these two cases, respectively. Thirdly, by calculating PMFG graphs and specific properties of corresponding networks, much stronger correlations among stocks are found at the peak of subprime crisis. Fourthly, since the total asset of the enterprise is considered in the construction of cross-correlation matrix, the matrix can more scientifically depict the correlations among stocks. This is due to the fact that the fluctuations of market can be analyzed more accurately. Moreover, eigenvectors are also analyzed. The larger the total asset of the enterprise, the greater the weight of the eigenvectors becomes. Similarly, the smaller the total asset of the enterprise, the smaller the component of the eigenvector becomes. Our work will be helpful for better understanding the physical mechanisms of the influence of subprime crisis and the total asset on the correlation among stocks. The risk of market fluctuations will be considered in our future work. In this work, for the convenience of calculation, we focus on the 30 Asian stocks and 30 American stocks. A larger sample size of stocks will be considered in the future work in order to obtain more statistical law under feasible conditions, especially the evolution of the characteristic parameters of the constructed system.
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